Monrovia – The resignation of Bronwyn Barnes as President and Chief Government Officer of Ivanhoe Atlantic is the strongest indication but that the U.S.-backed iron ore undertaking linking Guinea to Liberia is going through severe hassle, with far-reaching implications for Liberia’s rail, mining, and infrastructure ambitions.
By Gerald C. Koinyeneh, [email protected]
Barnes’ exit comes barely months after the Liberian authorities celebrated a US$1.8 billion settlement with Ivanhoe Atlantic to determine a brand new cross-border rail hall that will place Liberia as a strategic export gateway for Guinean iron ore. That imaginative and prescient is now more and more unsure.
Barnes’ Exit and Its Significance
Barnes was not merely Ivanhoe Atlantic’s chief government; she was the undertaking’s principal political and diplomatic face. She led negotiations with the Liberian authorities, engaged Guinean authorities, and served as the general public bridge to U.S. geopolitical pursuits backing the undertaking.
In 2025, she was on the heart of intense lobbying efforts after Liberia’s Inter-Ministerial Concessions Committee (IMCC) reversed course and reaffirmed ArcelorMittal Liberia’s (AML) function as operator of the Yekepa–Buchanan railway—important infrastructure Ivanhoe hoped to entry.
“It is vitally uncommon for a mining firm to function a railway line owned by the federal government,” Barnes mentioned in an unique interview with FrontPageAfrica in Monrovia. “What sometimes occurs is the federal government appoints an unbiased operator and ensures equitable and clear entry for all customers. What the Boakai administration is doing aligns with worldwide finest observe.”
Analysts say her departure now strongly suggests Ivanhoe Atlantic has encountered structural and political obstacles it could possibly now not handle beneath its present technique.
Trade sources say the resignation displays rising uncertainty over whether or not Ivanhoe can safe any viable export route—an existential downside for a mining firm with out assured entry to rail or port infrastructure. Analysts add that Barnes’ exit weakens Ivanhoe’s credibility with host governments, traders, and U.S. backers already uneasy about sluggish progress and mounting geopolitical problems.
Liberia Rail Entry: The First Purple Flag
Ivanhoe Atlantic’s Liberia technique hinges nearly totally on entry to the Yekepa–Buchanan railway, presently operated by ArcelorMittal Liberia. Though lawmakers permitted a multi-user rail framework, the operational actuality stays unsure.
AML’s ongoing enlargement at Yekepa is already consuming important rail capability, elevating doubts about whether or not surplus entry exists for a competing exporter. Critics argue that each Ivanhoe and the Liberian authorities celebrated legislative approval with out first securing enforceable, bankable entry agreements.
In essence, the legislation opened the door—however nobody confirmed there was area on the tracks.
Guinea: A Deal Liberia Can’t Implement
The extra severe problem lies past Liberia’s borders. Ivanhoe’s plan relies on transporting iron ore from its Guinean operations via Liberia, but questions persist over whether or not Guinea has formally permitted such exports.
In 2020, Guinea reportedly licensed a most of 5 million metric tons each year (mtpa) of ore for transit via Liberia—a cap that, in response to a number of sources, stays unchanged.
In a letter to Barnes, President Joseph Boakai’s Financial Advisor, Molley Kamara, accused Ivanhoe of shifting away from its authentic dedication to construct new infrastructure and as an alternative searching for entry to AML’s current belongings. He additionally questioned the corporate’s transparency relating to its projected US$3.15 billion financial impression.
“Your organization has not been clear with the federal government and the IMCC,” Kamara wrote. “Can the Guinean authorities assure that Ivanhoe would ship ore via Liberia—and at what quantity?”
Barnes countered that Ivanhoe holds a mining conference ratified by Guinea’s parliament in 2020, granting the corporate rights to export as much as 30 million mtpa via Liberia. She additional cited a bilateral treaty between Liberia and Guinea permitting cross-border mineral exports through the Yekepa–Buchanan railway and Buchanan Port.
“All these agreements have been in place since 2020,” Barnes mentioned. “What we’re doing now’s finalizing a framework settlement with Liberia to supply technical and operational entry to the railway.”
Subsequent developments, nevertheless, recommend these assurances had been removed from settled.
Senate Committee Flags Treaty and Governance Failures
A Joint Committee of the Liberian Legislature reviewing the Concession and Entry Settlement (CAA) raised severe considerations about treaty compliance, diplomatic publicity, and infrastructure governance, warning that the settlement couldn’t proceed with out main amendments.
In an in depth report back to the Senate Plenary, the committee—comprising panels on Transport, Concessions, Judiciary, Methods, Means, Finance, and Finances, amongst others—discovered no proof of formal engagement with the Authorities of Guinea since 2021, regardless of the undertaking’s full reliance on Guinean iron ore transshipment.
The committee was tasked with assessing the authorized, fiscal, environmental, and governance implications of the settlement, together with compliance with Liberia’s obligations beneath the Liberia–Guinea Implementation Settlement (IA).
Why the Implementation Settlement Issues
The Liberia–Guinea Implementation Settlement is a binding bilateral treaty governing shared use of transport infrastructure for cross-border mining actions. It establishes joint establishments—together with inter-ministerial and technical committees—to make sure that no non-public firm features entry to shared infrastructure with out the consent of each governments.
Analysts emphasize that beneath Liberia’s Structure, the IA carries the power of legislation. Any concession or entry settlement inconsistent with it’s weak to authorized problem, diplomatic fallout, or termination.
The Joint Committee discovered no proof that the treaty-mandated establishments had been ever established or operational.
“No minutes, resolutions, technical opinions, or entry templates had been offered to show compliance,” the report acknowledged.
Government Faulted, Dangers Ignored
The committee additionally criticized the Government Department for failing to supply the requested documentation forward of a December 12, 2025 public listening to. Paperwork submitted by the Ministry of Transport had been largely outdated and did not show latest engagement with Guinea.
“All documentary proof earlier than the Committee signifies that the final formal communication between the Governments of Liberia and Guinea occurred in or about August 2021,” the report famous.
Regardless of these warnings, the Senate voted to concur with the Home of Representatives and handed the settlement.
Guinea Strikes in a Totally different Route
In the meantime, Guinea has made clear—each beneath its former army authorities and the present civilian administration—that it intends to export its iron ore via its personal infrastructure. This technique facilities on the huge Simandou undertaking and a Chinese language-backed 670-kilometre railway to the port of Morebaya.
That coverage route instantly undermines Ivanhoe Atlantic’s plan to route Guinean ore via Liberia. Liberia can’t compel Guinea to redirect its exports, nor does it management Guinea’s mineral sources.
If Guinea refuses authorization—as present alerts recommend—the US$1.8 billion Liberia-Ivanhoe settlement dangers changing into largely symbolic.
Ignoring the Writing on the Wall
Regardless of these warning indicators, each Ivanhoe Atlantic and the Liberian authorities pressed forward, framing the rail deal as a geopolitical victory aligned with U.S. strategic pursuits. But Guinea’s infrastructure plans, environmental sensitivities round Mount Nimba, and deep alignment with Chinese language companions had been by no means hidden.
Analysts now say the undertaking was constructed extra on diplomatic optimism than exhausting industrial ensures.
What’s at Stake for Liberia
For Liberia, the fallout is as a lot reputational as financial. The federal government invested important political capital in selling itself as a regional logistics hub, solely to confront the bounds of infrastructure diplomacy.
If the Ivanhoe undertaking stalls or collapses, it might reinforce investor skepticism about Liberia’s capability to translate high-profile agreements into operational realities.
A Venture at a Crossroads
Barnes’ resignation underscores a stark actuality: with out assured rail entry in Liberia and express export authorization from Guinea, Ivanhoe Atlantic’s flagship undertaking stays stranded—geographically, commercially, and politically.
Except Guinea dramatically shifts its posture or regional export logic is renegotiated, Liberia’s celebrated rail deal might stand as one other cautionary story of ambition outpacing leverage in West Africa’s mining politics.
The indicators had been there. The query now’s who will bear the price of ignoring them.
