It’s 8am on a Friday in Cape City, and the tidal pool at Saunders’ Rocks Seashore in Sea Level is brimming with exercise. With Lion’s Head as a backdrop, courageous swimmers wade into the brisk 15C water, whereas others lounge on the sun-warmed rocks, absorbing the morning rays and sipping on takeaway flat whites. As soon as a quiet spot recognized solely to locals, these days you’ll additionally possible hear a British or American accent. That is how the day sometimes begins for some who stay alongside the Atlantic Seaboard, a coveted space wedged between the mountains and the ocean, the place sea-facing mansions are carved into the cliffside.
However too many individuals, it might appear, need a slice of it. Or a minimum of within the eyes of locals. Although South Africa has been within the information as a rustic from which, in accordance to Donald Trump, individuals are fleeing violence and discrimination, Cape City, a minimum of, is attracting some foreigners shifting within the reverse course. Final Could, when South Africa introduced a nomadic visa that enables distant staff to stay and work within the nation for as much as three years, Cape City residents erupted with frustration on social media. “Cease coming to South Africa,” mentioned influencer Naledi Mallela on TikTok. Whereas they’re blaming foreigners from Germany, the UK and US for considerably straining Cape City’s housing market, that’s only one channel. Inner migration is one other, as is short-term leases and unregulated Airbnbs — there are some 25,800 energetic listings. All are driving up property and rental costs and contributing to housing shortages.
The 2022 nationwide census recorded Cape City’s inhabitants at 4.77mn, reflecting a 27.6 per cent improve from 2011. As of 2024, it’s estimated to have risen to 4.97mn. In parallel, property costs rose round 160 per cent from 2010 to 2024. Common home worth development in 2024 was 8.5 per cent in comparison with the nationwide common of 4.5 per cent, in response to the Residential Property Worth Index from November 2024.
Capetonians are paying the value for it in plenty of methods. Whereas some frolic on the seaside, others endure hours of gridlock on the N2 — the primary freeway main into Cape City. The INRIX now lists town because the ninth most congested on the earth. Residents within the historic, colour-filled neighbourhood of Bo-Kaap complain about gentrification. There have been reviews of a scarcity of healthcare professionals and, in casual settlements, overcrowding has turn out to be a fair bigger concern. Town’s sewage infrastructure additionally faces challenges equivalent to spills, and lots of of its wastewater therapy crops are struggling to satisfy nationwide requirements. It’s largely a results of earlier load shedding (electrical energy cuts) which impacted pump stations and wastewater therapy crops, but additionally vandalism and poor upkeep.
However government mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, of the opposition social gathering the Democratic Alliance, is bullish. With almost R40 billion ($1.65bn) put aside for infrastructure tasks within the coming years — which features a R715mn sewer improve within the lower-income Cape Flats area, which goals to influence 300,000 households and a R7bn enlargement of the MyCiti public bus service — the mayor says his plan is “the most important infrastructure funding pipeline of any metropolis within the nation by a mile”.
Hill-Lewis has lengthy rejected the concept that digital nomads are the rationale for a hovering housing market. He believes the visa is a scapegoat, and the most important driver of stress is what South Africans name “semigration” — South Africans from different elements of the nation flocking to Cape City. And why wouldn’t they?
“There’s [net] 100,000 folks — middle-class households — who’ve moved from Gauteng [home to Johannesburg and Pretoria] to Cape City over the previous two years [and entered the property market],” says Hill-Lewis. “That’s 5 instances [more than] quick time period leases.” It’s a vital acceleration. Between 2011 and 2022, the Western Cape skilled a internet achieve of round 296,000 residents via interprovincial migration. Cape City gives what quite a lot of locations across the nation don’t: dependable infrastructure, relative security within the central metropolis and a few suburbs, and extra financial alternatives. In his 2024 Funds speech, Hill-Lewis mentioned 300,000 new jobs had been created for the reason that begin of his time period in 2021.
“Joburg has misplaced its shine,” says John Loos, property strategist and economist at FNB Industrial Property Finance. Loos provides that Cape City is the quickest rising financial system within the nation, and town recorded a 20.2 per cent improve in employment between 2014 and 2023. “Earnings development of locals can be rising barely higher than Gauteng and different provinces,” says Loos. He additionally notes that the most important variety of migrants flooding into town are from different elements of South Africa and Africa. Regardless of the latter, he provides: “I feel there’s in all probability an excessive amount of emphasis positioned on foreigners.”
The property market temper is at instances frantic. Actual property agent Donna Norgarb not too long ago listed a R7mn (roughly £280,000) home within the well-to-do suburbs of Newlands and Rondebosch, the place she had 20 folks viewing it without delay. One man, who briefly noticed it for quarter-hour as a result of he needed to get to a rugby sport, referred to as throughout half-time and put in a money supply. Lots of the consumers? Joburgers. Over the previous 12 months, 20 per cent of her purchaser inquiries within the sought-after Atlantic Seaboard and Metropolis Bowl areas have been from the better Johannesburg and Pretoria space.
Security and safety (in central areas) is an enormous driver. Phumlile Smith moved to Cape City from Johannesburg 5 years in the past. “You may’t experience your bike in Joburg except you’re in a walled-off property,” says Smith. However such is the market hole between the 2 cities, she wasn’t capable of finding a comparable dwelling for the same worth. Having owned a four-bedroom 1,200 sq m dwelling with a pool close to Lanseria in Johannesburg, she is now renting a smaller three-bedroom dwelling a brief drive from the central Cape City neighbourhood of Rondebosch. She would have appreciated to have invested in property, however “I’m priced out of the market,” she says.
Shifting to town has been nice for her youngsters, however she’s bothered by issues past the property market. Specifically, town’s racial divide. Smith describes center and higher class neighbourhoods in Johannesburg as “cosmopolitan and intensely diversely built-in. I can’t say I’ve skilled the identical in Cape City,” she says.
Nonetheless, asset supervisor Zamazulu Zulu felt that she “wanted to get out of Joburg”. She moved to Franschhoek, simply exterior Cape City, 4 years in the past. When she began trying severely to buy property, she rapidly realised how costly it’s in comparison with Johannesburg and needed to modify her expectations, deciding on a extra modest dwelling in a safe property that wanted a renovation. The profit is that her taxes and levies within the Franschhoek space are lower than what she was paying in Lanseria, the place she beforehand lived. “4 years in the past, it was already greater than double what I’m paying now.”
It’s removed from the case for all Cape City residents: charges and levies are exceedingly excessive in some areas. Kelly Skeen, an inside designer who moved from Johannesburg along with her household in 2020, checked out round 50 homes and put gives on six earlier than one obtained accepted. Although it’s centrally positioned, it’s not her dream dwelling. Not solely did Skeen have to regulate her expectations, however she now pays a sewage cost of virtually R1500, in addition to extra for water (the place she lived in Rosebank, Johannesburg, she obtained as much as 6.3 kilolitres free).
“It’s not easy, however we’re paying town of Cape City greater than we paid town of Joburg.” Skeen doesn’t remorse her determination to relocate. On weekends she will be able to take her youngsters to the seaside and, although she misses elements of Johannesburg, there are decrease ranges of crime round the place she lives, and he or she doesn’t should cope with gripes like water cuts as a consequence of burst pipes that wanted upkeep. “In some features you sacrifice,” she says, “however you additionally achieve in different methods.”
Hill-Lewis is unapologetic about charges (properties above R7mn may see a rise of greater than 20 per cent within the 2025/26 Funds). “The extra invaluable the property, the upper the tax,” he says. “We intentionally steadiness these scales in favour of poorer neighbourhoods and make investments an increasing number of into them in order that we are able to enhance the standard of life there.” He says upwards of 75 per cent is spent in very poor, underserved neighbourhoods, citing water and sewer pipe replacements in Gugulethu and Delft, and increasing roadways equivalent to Jip de Jager Drive in Belleville.
“Town derives most of its revenue from property taxes, which by definition operates as a wealth tax,” says Hill-Lewis. Like a lot of South Africa, roughly 49 per cent of residents within the Western Cape stay in townships, residential areas with excessive inhabitants densities and restricted infrastructure. In Cape City, these are on the outskirts of town, requiring residents to journey huge distances to get to work.
Hill-Lewis has plenty of reasonably priced housing initiatives below manner, together with releasing metropolis land and creating extra subsidised models throughout town in central neighbourhoods such because the Metropolis Bowl, Bellville and Claremont.
However some say Hill-Lewis is “cleansing up” a bit an excessive amount of and there’s been criticism round his evictions, the place casual settlers dwelling across the metropolis centre, particularly alongside the premises of the Fortress of Good Hope in November, have been relocated. Unathi Ntame of the Financial Freedom Fighters (EFF), the unconventional South African and Black nationalist political social gathering, says, “This can be a authorities that continues to prioritise vacationer sights over the welfare of its most weak residents.”
Larger charges and taxes is perhaps egregious for some locals, however for a lot of foreigners from international locations with stronger currencies, it’s a small worth to pay to stay in a metropolis the place you possibly can go mountain mountain climbing or take a dip within the ocean earlier than work. “If this tax truly goes in the direction of town enhancing itself, we’re all for it,” says Veerta Motiani, an American inside designer who relocated to Cape City seven years in the past for her husband’s work. “As a foreigner, that’s what you must be prepared to provide in the direction of town.”
Norgarb has seen many extra non-Africans relocating to Cape City — at the moment round 6 per cent of her inquiries. Some are “swallows” — individuals who come for a number of the 12 months — who at the moment are extending their season and likewise upgrading their properties. “They’re spending extra time right here and rooting down,” says Norgarb. “What’s gone from a pied-à-terre state of affairs is now: I need a home.”
For the previous few years, US-born casting director Kate Mack has break up her time between Cape City and New York. She, her South African husband and son escape the New York winter of their Bantry Bay dwelling (which in addition they hire out when not there). “I fell in love with it,” says Mack, who would take into account dwelling right here full-time if her household wasn’t so far-off within the US.
“I’m continuously answering questions from expats inquisitive about shifting right here,” says Motiani, who shares updates about her dwelling renovation on social media, the place she has hundreds of followers, a lot of whom are within the US. Most individuals sliding into her DMs are New Yorkers. They need to know, “What visa did you get? Who’s your lawyer?”
When Motiani first moved to town for a two-year stint, her intention wasn’t to remain. However, she says: “It’s this small-town life. It simply blew us away in each manner. As our neighborhood grew, we have been identical to, that is it for us. So we ended up shopping for a house.” Their outdated Cape Dutch-style home is positioned on the slopes of Desk Mountain. Whereas costs listed below are significantly dearer than different South African cities, it might have been not possible for them to afford someplace like this in New York or LA, the place that they had beforehand lived.
“For many of these residents — who’re coming with onerous foreign money in euros or {dollars} or kilos — what they’ll afford in Cape City is unbelievable worth for cash in comparison with related areas elsewhere,” says Hill-Lewis. He says that the majority foreigners aren’t competing with native consumers. “Most of these traders are buying on the very excessive finish of the market.”
However “all of it filters down”, counters Norgarb. “It’s positively upping the worth.” She acknowledges that her youngsters may wrestle to purchase property in the future. However, she says, she additionally sees the positives.
There’s one good thing about the upper taxes: most of the folks I spoke to acknowledge that the native authorities has offered first rate public providers. Although Zamazulu Zulu has heard folks complain about points with pipes and sewage, her expertise has largely been good. “I see the municipal staff cleansing up, sweeping the roads, trimming the bushes once they’re overgrown,” says Zulu, who recounts seeing a pothole alongside a primary highway on her manner out of Franschhoek. When she returned that very same day it had been mounted. “In Joburg, I wasn’t used to that,” she says. “I’ve simply seen potholes getting greater and larger and larger.”
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If the inhabitants continues to extend, the problem for the federal government shall be to keep up Cape City’s infrastructure. It’s a metropolis surrounded by ocean and mountains, so extending sure neighbourhoods or including bigger highways in some areas is out of the query.
Hill-Lewis is aware of congestion and stress on infrastructure, however says that foot visitors is sweet for the financial system. “Our number-one social disaster in South Africa is unemployment,” he says, citing figures upwards of 35 per cent. “If there’s something that we are able to do this helps to carry additional funding and jobs to town, then we completely should do this.”
For Hill-Lewis, an inflow of traders is an effective drawback to have, serving to to drive an financial system dealing with challenges. “There are many different pressures and issues that the entire success brings,” he says. “However these pressures are significantly better to cope with than the ever worsening stress that comes with a failing financial system, rising poverty and unemployment.”
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