Hegseth says Iran’s nuclear program was ‘obliterated.’ What we know so far about how much damage was actually done

Ballistic consultants say it is too quickly to find out how a lot harm Iran’s nuclear amenities sustained within the weekend assault.

On Saturday evening, the USA focused nuclear websites in Iran believed to be important to the nation’s capability to supply nuclear weapons: a uranium enrichment web site positioned in northwestern Iran — deep inside a mountain in Fordo — together with one other uranium enrichment web site in Natanz and the Isfahan Nuclear Know-how Heart, used for metallic uranium manufacturing.

Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth advised reporters throughout an early morning briefing Sunday that the Iranian nuclear ambitions had been “obliterated,” describing the army strike as “daring and sensible.”

President Donald Trump echoed that statement on Sunday evening, writing on his social media platform, Reality Social, that “Monumental Harm” had been accomplished to all of Iran’s nuclear websites.

“Obliteration is an correct time period!” Trump wrote, including that the “greatest harm” occurred far beneath floor.

However different officers and consultants haven’t gone as far when requested how a lot harm was accomplished to the three websites.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine advised ABC Information on Sunday morning that it’ll “take some time” to evaluate how a lot harm has been accomplished.

“Ultimate battle harm will take a while, however preliminary battle harm assessments point out that each one three websites sustained extraordinarily extreme harm and destruction,” Caine stated.

There may be at present a lack of know-how of the extent of the harm brought on by the strikes, an Israeli official advised ABC Information on Sunday. As well as, it’s unclear whether or not any materials was moved from the Fordo web site forward of the strikes, the official stated.

The plan was “effectively coordinated” and resulted from months of planning between the U.S. and Israel, the official stated.

Nonetheless, the intention of the general operation was to degrade — not destroy — Iran’s nuclear program, a separate Israeli supply advised ABC Information.

“We didn’t say we remove the nuclear program,” the supply stated. “We stated take away the fast existential menace, which may be very completely different.”

Different consultants expressed skepticism of the harm that was accomplished to Iran’s nuclear websites.

A high-level European weapons programs and ballistics professional advised ABC Information that it appears “extremely unlikely” that the bombs could be detonated in shut neighborhood to Fordo’s underground construction, primarily based on the calculated efficiency of the GBU-57, or the “bunker buster” bomb.

Calculations present that the GBU-57 can not penetrate greater than 65 ft via underground rock, however the Fordo enrichment web site was constructed as much as almost 300 ft beneath the bottom, inside stable rock, the professional stated.

“I personally can’t think about that a whole lot of harm was accomplished,” particularly if the underground facility was correctly designed, the ballistics professional stated.

The U.S. may have dropped a number of bombs to make the rock extra fragile, permitting a subsequent strike to do extra harm, the professional stated.

The evaluation of the diploma of harm underground in Fordo is unclear, Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company Director-Common Rafael Grossi advised CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday.

“No person else may be capable to let you know how a lot it has been broken,” Grossi stated.

The extent of the harm accomplished to the above-ground facility in Natanz may be very clear, Grossi stated, including that even the underground centrifuge — used to counterpoint the uranium to increased grades — suffered extensively as a result of mixed impacts that broken the exterior energy provide. Vital harm was additionally accomplished at Isfahan, which has been sustaining assaults for a number of days, Grossi stated.

The true extent of harm to the three websites — together with their nuclear infrastructure and what stays — can’t be ascertained till inspectors from the IAEA or members of the worldwide neighborhood are allowed to entry them, Aditi Verma, an assistant professor on the College of Michigan’s Division of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, advised ABC Information.

It usually takes consultants some time to finish assessments of harm from army motion, so the complete extent of the degradation to Iran’s nuclear amenities will possible stay unknown for a while, John Erath, senior coverage director of the Heart for Arms Management and Non-Proliferation, advised ABC Information.

The environmental impacts from the strikes — each chemical and radiological — are prone to be confined to the fast space, Verma stated.

Up to now, there are not any elevated ranges of radioactivity being reported, Emily A. Caffrey, director for the Well being Physics Program on the College of Alabama at Birmingham, advised ABC Information.

“That isn’t stunning contemplating the character of the fabric that was presumed current on the web site,” Kathryn Ann Higley, distinguished professor of nuclear science and engineering at Oregon State College and president of the Nationwide Council on Radiation Safety and Measurements, advised ABC Information.

Uranium, even enriched uranium, is just barely radioactive, Higley stated. However the absence of radiological signature shouldn’t be taken as a sign of failure or success of the army motion, Higley added.

However one “vital” concern is that the assaults will completely estrange Iran from the worldwide system of authorized frameworks and norms which have prevented the Iranian authorities from constructing a weapon, Verma stated.

“As we all know, Iran has a historical past of growing clandestine enrichment amenities,” Verma stated.

Leaders from all sides ought to use the period in-between to search for a diplomatic resolution that might make additional army motion pointless, Erath stated.