LONDON — Russian President Vladimir Putin has no need to halt Russia’s virtually 4-year-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine and thinks he can “outsmart” america throughout talks with Washington about tips on how to finish the conflict, a senior European intelligence official instructed The Related Press.
Kaupo Rosin, the top of Estonia’s international intelligence service, mentioned Moscow is enjoying for time within the talks with Washington and “there may be completely no dialogue about tips on how to actually cooperate with the U.S. in a significant means.”
Rosin, who spoke at a web based briefing with reporters forward of the publication of Estonia’s annual safety report on Tuesday, mentioned the findings have been based mostly on intelligence his nation gathered from “Russian inside discussions.” He didn’t elaborate on how the knowledge was obtained however mentioned the discussions confirmed that Russian officers imagine that Washington stays Moscow’s “major enemy.”
The Estonian report says Russia is unlikely to assault NATO this yr or subsequent however that Moscow stays harmful because it tries to construct up its armed forces.
Russian officers have publicly insisted they need a negotiated deal, however they present little willingness to compromise and stay adamant their demands must be met.
U.S.-brokered talks between envoys from Russia and Ukraine in latest weeks have been described by officers from either side as constructive and constructive, however there was no sign of any progress on key points within the discussions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, “in his head, nonetheless thinks that he can really militarily win (in Ukraine) in some unspecified time in the future,” Rosin mentioned.
A White Home official responded to the Estonian intelligence chief’s feedback and mentioned the president’s negotiators had made “large progress” on the talks to finish the conflict in Ukraine. Though prisoner exchanges have occurred sporadically since Might, they pointed particularly to a latest settlement in Abu Dhabi among the many U.S., Ukraine and Russia to launch greater than 300 prisoners.
That settlement was proof that efforts to finish the conflict are advancing, mentioned the official, who was granted anonymity as a result of they didn’t have permission to talk publicly.
In a sign that U.S. President Donald Trump needs to speed up the momentum of peace efforts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned final week that Washington has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach a settlement. Trump over the previous yr has set a number of deadlines which have come and gone with out obvious penalties.
Fiona Hill, a Russia knowledgeable and adviser to Trump in his first time period, mentioned Trump and his officers are spinning a narrative that depicts the U.S. president as a peacemaker and, for that purpose, they don’t seem to be interested by altering their evaluation that Putin needs to finish the conflict.
Each leaders, she instructed the AP, “want their model of occasions to play out” and are hanging on to their model of the reality — Putin because the victor in Ukraine and Trump because the dealmaker.
Russian bombardments of Ukraine have continued unabated.
On Tuesday morning, Russian glide bombs killed an 11-year-old woman and her mom within the jap Donetsk area, regional chief Vadym Filashkin mentioned. Seven others, together with a 7-year-old woman, have been injured.
In the course of the night time, at the very least 5 individuals have been wounded, together with a toddler and two youngsters, in Russian drone assaults throughout Ukraine, regional authorities mentioned.
Though Trump has repeatedly urged that Putin needs peace, he has sometimes appeared frustrated with the Russian chief’s lukewarm method to talks.
From an intelligence perspective, Rosin mentioned he doesn’t know why U.S. officers imagine the Russian chief needs to finish the conflict.
Hill, who served as a nationwide intelligence officer underneath earlier U.S. administrations, mentioned it is unclear what intelligence info Trump will get on Russia — or if he reads it.
He depends closely on his lead negotiators, particular envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who Hill mentioned might wrestle to imagine that the harm to the Russian economic system attributable to the conflict is a worth Putin is prepared to pay for Ukraine.
Referring to experiences that Witkoff has attended conferences with Putin with no U.S. State Division translator, she questioned if Trump’s envoys understood what was being mentioned in conferences and urged officers could also be “selectively” searching for what they need to hear.
Putin is fixated on controlling all of Ukraine and the thought “is so deep in his head” that it takes precedence over the rest, together with economics, Rosin mentioned, suggesting that the battle will proceed in some type for a number of years.
He mentioned Putin’s place might change provided that the state of affairs in Russia, or on the entrance line, turns into “catastrophic,” threatening his energy. For now, the Russian chief nonetheless believes he can take Ukraine and “outsmart everyone,” Rosin mentioned.
One purpose Putin thinks he can win militarily in Ukraine is as a result of he’s “undoubtedly” getting some incorrect info from his officers, the Estonian intelligence chief mentioned.
Not all Russian officers, nevertheless, imagine they’re profitable the conflict in Ukraine, Rosin mentioned.
“The decrease you go within the meals chain,” the extra individuals perceive “how unhealthy it’s really on the bottom,” he mentioned, whereas greater up, officers are extra optimistic as a result of they’re given extra constructive experiences. Rosin cited examples of officers being instructed Russian forces had captured Ukrainian settlements when that was not true.
The experiences that arrive at Putin’s desk could also be “rather more optimistic” than the state of affairs on the bottom as a result of Putin solely needs to see success, Rosin mentioned.
Hill mentioned each Trump and Putin are most likely being instructed what they need to hear by individuals who need to please them.
___ White Home reporter Seung Min Kim in Washington D.C. and Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed to this report. Observe AP’s protection of the conflict in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
