US talks pose ‘conundrum’ for Greenland, Denmark: Analysts

LONDON — U.S. officers are anticipated to fulfill with Danish and Greenlandic counterparts in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, amid President Donald Trump’s continued expressions of intent to accumulate the semi-autonomous Arctic territory regardless of collective opposition in each Copenhagen and Nuuk. 

Danish International Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Greenlandic International Minister Vivian Motzfeldt are set to steer the delegation to fulfill with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Greenland is a self-governing territory inside the Kingdom of Denmark.

In Denmark, “that is the massive nationwide information,” Jonas Parello-Plesner, a Danish political analyst and former diplomat, advised ABC Information. “If within the first Trump interval the saying was, ‘It’s best to take him significantly, however not actually,’ I believe the saying this time round is, ‘It’s best to each take him significantly and actually.'”

Trump first raised the prospect of buying the territory throughout his first time period, when Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed the concept as “absurd.” Trump’s second time period has seen the president converse extra aggressively concerning the proposal.

“Even from a yr in the past, I see a fairly stark distinction in each Greenlandic and Danish attitudes that that is truly doubtlessly actually critical and life altering for the Kingdom of Denmark,” mentioned Parello-Plesner, who’s now the manager director on the Copenhagen-based nonprofit Alliance of Democracies Basis.

Mikkel Runge Olesen, a senior researcher on the Danish Institute for Worldwide Research, advised ABC Information that the furor is prompting deeper questions amongst Danes and Greenlanders about their long-standing ties to the U.S.

“Is that this who the U.S. is now? A superpower going round, invading its small democratic allies?” he requested. “That is scary to consider.”

“Simply consider what it would do for the American alliance system worldwide,” he added. “What sort of sign it sends — should you’re allied with the U.S., you could be invaded every time it fits the U.S.”

‘You want possession’

Trump has repeatedly urged that U.S. sovereignty over the world’s largest island is critical to make sure American safety and blunt Chinese language and Russian affect within the Arctic area.

As part of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is roofed by NATO’s collective protection clause. Greenland hosts the U.S. Pituffik House Base and round 150 American troops, the U.S. having considerably downgraded its footprint from its excessive level in the course of the Chilly Battle.

A 1951 protection settlement grants the U.S. army entry to Greenland, and Danish politicians have repeatedly expressed willingness to work with Washington to broaden the American and NATO presence there.

Danish officers have additionally sought to go off considerations concerning the supposed vulnerability of the Arctic. Final yr, Copenhagen introduced a $6.5 billion Arctic protection bundle in response to U.S. criticism that it had did not adequately defend Greenland.

However Trump and his administration seem undeterred. “In some way, we will have Greenland,” the president advised reporters aboard Air Pressure One this weekend.

“If we do not take Greenland, Russia or China will and I am not letting that occur,” Trump mentioned, earlier than deriding Denmark’s army energy on the island.

“Principally, their protection is 2 canine sleds,” Trump mentioned. “Within the meantime, you could have Russian destroyers and submarines and China destroyers and submarines everywhere.”

Requested if there was a deal to be accomplished to keep away from additional tensions, Trump mentioned he would “like to” as a result of “it might be simpler.” 

However when pressed, the president mentioned, “I may put a variety of troopers there proper now if I need. However you want greater than that. You want possession.”

Forward of this week’s assembly, Danish and Greenlandic politicians issued statements once more rebuffing any suggestion of a U.S. acquisition of the island, statements which have been backed by different European leaders.

“If america decides to assault one other NATO nation, then all the pieces would cease — that features NATO and due to this fact post-World Battle II safety,” Frederiksen mentioned in an announcement.

“Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenland is a member of NATO via the Commonwealth and due to this fact the protection of Greenland is thru NATO,” the federal government in Nuuk mentioned in an announcement.

On Wednesday, Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen posted a photograph to social media displaying a message despatched to him by Frederiksen.

“Greenland won’t be owned by america,” the message — written in Greenlandic — mentioned. “Greenland doesn’t wish to be dominated by america. Greenland doesn’t wish to be part of america. We wish Greenland to proceed to operate as a part of the Kingdom.”

The leaders of all 5 political events holding seats in Greenland’s parliament additionally launched a joint assertion. “We don’t wish to be Individuals, we don’t wish to be Danes, we wish to be Greenlanders,” they mentioned.

Earlier than heading to the U.S. on Tuesday, Rasmussen — the Danish international minister — advised reporters in Copenhagen, “Our motive for in search of the assembly we now have now been given was to maneuver this entire dialogue, which has not turn out to be much less tense since we final met, into a gathering room the place we will look one another within the eye and speak about these items.”

Interesting to ‘the deal-maker’

Olesen, of the Danish Institute for Worldwide Research, mentioned Trump’s most up-to-date feedback “ought to fear Danish politicians.” His obvious dismissal of Copenhagen’s efforts to bolster its Arctic readiness “implies that both he hasn’t seen” or “he does not care. And both means, it is fairly dangerous.”

Trump advised The New York Occasions he believed U.S. possession of Greenland “is what I really feel is psychologically crucial for fulfillment.” That, too, is “problematic” for Copenhagen, Olesen mentioned. “How do you take care of that?” he requested.

“That is the conundrum for the Danish and the Greenlandic politicians,” Olesen mentioned, “attempting to not provoke Trump an excessive amount of and attempting to present him one thing.”

“Will probably be troublesome to supply a compromise if all he needs is possession,” he added.

Parello-Plesner, the previous Danish diplomat, mentioned the experiences of different nations throughout Trump’s second time period could supply fashions.

Trump’s give attention to Panama and perceived Chinese language overreach produced a proposed deal for a U.S. agency to take management of two ports there owned by a Hong Kong conglomerate. The president described the deal as “reclaiming the Panama Canal.”

José Raúl Mulino, the president of Panama, addressed Trump’s feedback concerning the Panama Canal in a publish on X final March, saying partly: “President Trump is mendacity once more. The Panama Canal just isn’t within the technique of being recovered, and this was definitely not a subject of dialogue in our conversations with Secretary Rubio or anybody else. On behalf of Panama and all Panamanians, I reject this new affront to the reality and to our dignity as a nation.”

In Ukraine, Kyiv alleviated U.S. stress by agreeing to a uncommon earth minerals sharing deal as a part of the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Funding Fund.

“There’s additionally a really pragmatic facet to Trump — the deal maker,” Parello-Plesner mentioned. “I believe our facet wants to present him one thing to work with,” he added.

That would imply recent commitments on American army deployments in Greenland, a deal associated to the territory’s untapped mineral wealth or a pledge to do extra to dam autocratic states from asserting their Arctic ambitions, Parello-Plesner mentioned.

It’s unclear what may attraction to the U.S. facet, he continued. “We have seen for 30 years that the U.S. has simply needed to chop down on the presence up there and solely makes use of it for restricted missile protection functions,” he mentioned.

Concerning Greenland’s believed mineral wealth, Parello-Plesner mentioned the U.S. authorities and personal corporations have been largely uninterested given the territory’s inhospitable climate and terrain, extraction challenges and international market forces.

A symbolic win could be sufficient to take the warmth out of Trump’s push, Olesen mentioned.

“It’ll be fascinating to see how far Danish and Greenlandic politicians really feel they will go so as to keep away from being humiliated, so as to keep away from handing over the Greenlandic underground to a bully,” Olesen continued.

“However then once more, the stakes are so excessive, so I would not rule it out, and I would not rule out that if that is one thing that would resolve the disaster.”

Within the meantime, each analysts mentioned Copenhagen and Nuuk are more likely to give attention to bolstering the picture of home unity, European solidarity, backing from the U.S. Congress and NATO-led Arctic safety.

“The Trump coverage line just isn’t invulnerable,” Olesen mentioned, noting pushback from U.S. voters and members of Congress — together with outstanding Republicans.

“In some unspecified time in the future, Trump could determine that it isn’t well worth the trouble anymore, and in that case, it might most likely be sensible to supply him some approach to save face and get out of it,” he mentioned.

However months of forwards and backwards over Greenland have already accomplished vital harm to transatlantic sentiment in Denmark, Parello-Plesner mentioned, in a rustic he mentioned has lengthy prided itself on broad assist for NATO and for shut relations with the U.S. Danish forces, for instance, sustained a comparable per capita casualty charge because the U.S. within the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan.

That energy of feeling, he mentioned, “has dropped tremendously.”

ABC Information’ Morgan Winsor and Clark Bentson contributed to this report.