Monrovia — The Central Financial institution of Liberia (CBL) has acknowledged a one-percent drop in Liberia’s financial progress charge, aligning with latest projections from the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF). Nonetheless, the Financial institution stays optimistic that the nation’s financial system will surpass the IMF’s revised progress goal for 2025, buoyed by sturdy efficiency in key productive sectors.
By Gerald C. Koinyeneh, [email protected]
The IMF had lately downgraded Liberia’s 2025 progress forecast from 5.6 p.c to 4.6 p.c, citing persistent structural bottlenecks, governance challenges, and restricted competitiveness. Regardless of the downgrade, CBL Government Governor Henry F. Saamoi expressed confidence that present financial knowledge level towards a stronger rebound than projected.
“Based mostly on that evaluation, we adjusted the expansion projection for 2025 from 5.6% to 4.6%. We agreed with them [IMF], however based mostly on the info, we’re seeing enormous motion in these sectors,” Governor Saamoi mentioned.
“We’re very a lot assured that we are able to exceed the expansion projection for 2025 within the crucial sectors of the financial system. There is a rise in gold and rubber manufacturing. However when these estimates had been made, there was a subdued projection when it comes to extra motion inside the personal sector. What we’re seeing now’s that the projection has doubled. So, when the info is reviewed, we consider that we are going to exceed the expansion projection,” he added.
IMF Downgrade and CBL’s Response
The IMF’s latest assessment urged the Liberian authorities to maintain reform momentum below the Prolonged Credit score Facility (ECF) program and sort out long-standing weaknesses which have constrained inclusive progress.
“Progress is projected at 4.6 p.c in 2025 and 5.4 p.c in 2026. Medium-term prospects stay favorable with GDP progress anticipated to stabilize at 5.5 p.c, assuming full and well timed implementation of the ECF-supported reform program,” the IMF said.
The Fund additionally emphasised the necessity for continued fiscal self-discipline, improved monetary sector stability, and structural reforms to curb corruption and improve competitiveness.
CBL’s Optimistic Outlook
Regardless of acknowledging the IMF’s conservative outlook on Liberia’s financial system, the Central Financial institution of Liberia (CBL) stays optimistic that the nation will exceed its 2025 progress projection. The Financial institution attributes this confidence to seen enhancements in key sectors corresponding to mining, agriculture, and personal enterprise improvement—all of which have outperformed earlier expectations.
Government Governor Henry F. Saamoi mentioned sustained will increase in gold and rubber manufacturing, coupled with renewed personal sector dynamism, are driving stronger financial exercise throughout the nation.
“When these new knowledge are taken into consideration, we’re assured that Liberia’s progress for 2025 will outpace present projections,” Saamoi informed FrontPage Africa in the course of the studying of the October 2025 Financial Coverage Communiqué adopted by the Financial institution’s Financial Coverage Committee (MPC) on Friday.
The CBL reaffirmed its dedication to sustaining macroeconomic stability and aligning financial and monetary insurance policies with the objective of selling sustainable and inclusive progress.
Coverage Price Lower Displays Rising Confidence
On the core of the MPC’s choice was the announcement of a discount within the Financial Coverage Price (MPR) from 17.25 p.c to 16.25 p.c, citing improved financial fundamentals and a extra steady macroeconomic outlook.
“After reviewing all experiences, the Committee decreased the primary rate of interest, referred to as the Financial Coverage Price, by one proportion level to 16.25 p.c,” Governor Saamoi defined. “This choice exhibits confidence that costs are stabilizing and the financial system stays sturdy.”
Saamoi mentioned the transfer was knowledgeable by better-than-expected international progress and easing inflationary pressures. Citing the IMF’s newest forecast, he famous that international progress in 2025 is projected at 3 p.c, up from earlier estimates.
He, nonetheless, cautioned that commerce tensions, geopolitical dangers, and tariff disputes proceed to pose challenges for rising economies.
“Regardless of these dangers, Liberia is benefitting from declining international meals and gas costs and better gold costs, which have boosted export earnings,” he mentioned.
In response to the CBL, international inflation is predicted to fall from 5.6 p.c in 2024 to 4.2 p.c in 2025, largely as a result of decrease oil costs—a improvement Saamoi described as “excellent news” for Liberia’s import-dependent financial system.
Home Progress Strengthens, Inflation Falls
Governor Saamoi disclosed that Liberia’s financial system stays on monitor to increase by about 4.6 p.c in 2025, supported by a stronger companies sector and regular remittance inflows.
“Inflation fell sharply from 11.1 p.c within the earlier quarter to six.1 p.c, primarily as a result of meals inflation dropped from 15.8 p.c to five.6 p.c and imported items turned barely cheaper,” he informed reporters.
He projected a slight uptick in inflation in the course of the vacation season however mentioned it ought to stay round 6 p.c, helped by a steady alternate charge and resilient commerce flows.
Banking Sector Resilient
Governor Saamoi described the banking sector as “sound and resilient,” noting that each one business banks proceed to satisfy capital adequacy necessities.
“Banks have ample capital to cowl their operations, with liquidity ratios effectively above the minimal threshold,” he mentioned.
Whereas lending exercise slowed barely, non-performing loans declined and money reserves improved, signaling more healthy steadiness sheets. Overseas reserves additionally rose modestly in the course of the third quarter, whereas each authorities and personal sector borrowing declined, contributing to a discount within the whole cash provide.
“The federal government continued assembly its debt obligations and issued US$22.6 million in new treasury bonds in the course of the quarter,” Saamoi mentioned, commending fiscal authorities for “prudent spending and improved coordination” with the central financial institution.
Liberia additionally recorded a small commerce surplus—exporting greater than it imported—for the primary time this 12 months. Overseas reserves climbed to US$544.8 million, remittance inflows rose by 8 p.c, and the Liberian greenback appreciated by about 9 p.c.
Stakeholders Name for Reforms and Inclusion
Friday’s announcement drew a cross-section of enterprise and neighborhood representatives, together with entrepreneurs, foreign exchange bureau operators, and college college students, who used the event to name for deeper financial reforms.
Madam Elizabeth Sambola, President of the Liberia Advertising Affiliation (LMA), appealed to the CBL to intervene in restrictions positioned by cellular cash operators—Lonestar MTN and Orange Liberia—that restrict entrepreneurs from sending or receiving sure transaction quantities.
Regardless of the appreciation of the Liberian greenback, there are issues that costs of important commodities haven’t fallen proportionally, making a disconnect between forex features and shopper prices.
Responding to a FrontPage Africa inquiry on the problem, Governor Saamoi defined that worth reductions don’t happen instantly when the native forex appreciates as a result of companies should first dump present inventories bought at larger alternate charges.
“We noticed the sharp appreciation of the forex, however costs didn’t robotically cut back,” he mentioned. “If you conduct this stock and the forex appreciates, lowering costs instantly would imply incurring losses. It takes time for the adjustment to mirror out there.”
